Russian stocks may fall at opening on global negative trends

MOSCOW, Feb 11 (PRIME) -- Russian stocks are likely to edge down on Monday following global negative trends and a marginal contraction of oil prices, analysts said.

“The external factors of uncertainty, like risks of another government shutdown in the U.S. and delays in trade negotiations with China, still have a negative impact on demand on the stock markets. At the same time, technical analysis does not allow us to register breaking through 1,200 of the RTS index, it will trade around the level in the next few days,” Olma’s senior analyst Anton Startsev said.

Vitaly Manzhos, senior risk manager at investment company Algo Capital, said that the background for the Russian market is mixed as the U.S. stock index futures fell by 0.2%, the gold futures by 0.3%, China’s Shanghai Composite grows by 0.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gains 0.2%.

“We expect the MOEX Russia Index to open with an insignificant decrease of about 0.2–0.3% in a 2,495–2,500 range. The levels of 2,490 and 2,480 will act as the closest support, while 2,510 and 2,520 will become the resistance. In the first several minutes of trade, the MOEX Russia Index will price in the worsening of mood on the oil market.”

Manzhos also said that investors received two confirmations that the Russian economy is not in that bad of a shape. International rating agency Moody’s upgraded Russia to an investment grade of Baa3, and the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services acknowledged the inefficiency of the existing U.S. sanctions against Russia, he said.

Vadim Kravchuk, analyst at investment company Solid, said that the U.S. has resumed its sanction rhetoric, and investors will look into it.

“After a several months suspension, the Congress will return to discussion of additional measures of pressure on Russia and other states like Iran and Venezuela. The first meeting on that is scheduled for tomorrow. This was a bit unexpected for the market, as investors expected an increase in the external pressure to happen no earlier than in March, so the first reaction to that may come in the form of reduction of the share of OFZ federal bonds and shares of banks in portfolios,” Kravchuk said.

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